In just a few weeks, on March 23, Israelis will be headed to the polls for their fourth election in two years. In the past, they looked condescendingly at countries like the United Kingdom, Spain and Italy that had a reputation for frequent elections, thinking to themselves that could never happen in Israel. But it did. Israel’s big political morass keeps on growing with no end in sight, and Israelis will pay yet another visit to the polling booth to see democracy in inaction.
One of the main features of the previous elections was a series of consolidations among political parties, particularly on the center-left. An example of this is the Blue and White list, which brought together three separate parties: Yesh Atid, Israel Resilience and Telem. The Arab Joint List brought together four separate Arab parties, and Labor teamed up with Gesher and Meretz to avoid wasting votes. What stands out in this election is the number of parties that split up into their constituent parts, with many deciding to go their separate ways. So, if it would have taken just three ballots to vote for all the aforementioned parties in the last election, it would take six ballots this time. It is the exact opposite of what happened in the previous elections.
The breakup of the Arab Joint List resulted in two separate parties. The first consists of Hadash, Balad and Ta’al, which decided to stick to the Joint List’s old format and platform. What makes this election different is the Ra’am party, headed by Knesset member Mansour Abbas, which decided to run independently with a promise of a new approach to issues of concern to its Arab electorate. It uses every available platform to announce its message — “We are neither left nor right. We work with everyone to advance issues pertaining to the Arab society.” As of now, most polls show that the new party has not garnered enough support among the Arab electorate to gamble on Abbas. Only one poll, conducted by Channel 13, has Ra’am passing the electoral threshold with four seats, the barest minimum needed to enter the Knesset.
A common explanation is the methodology used by pollsters. Telephone polling is thought to offer a more accurate reflection of the Arab vote than online polls, because it is difficult to sample the elderly population and the Bedouins of the Negev through the internet.
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