After nearly eight years of vitriolic discord and regional bickering, Turkey is on a quest to mend fences with Egypt, hoping that the prospect of mutual geopolitical gains will pave the way for reconciliation and help soften the energy rivalry in the eastern Mediterranean. Cairo appears open to Turkey’s overtures, but true normalization might prove elusive until the leaders of the two countries overcome their personal grudges and engage in direct dialogue. 

On March 12, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who has called his Egyptian counterpart a “murderer” and a “tyrant,” said intelligence and diplomatic contacts were under way with Cairo, expressing desire to take them to a higher level. Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu, meanwhile, said the contacts were progressing slowly and gradually after years of disconnect and mistrust between the two countries.

Two main reasons have driven Ankara’s reconciliation efforts. The first is geopolitical: the isolation in which Turkey finds itself in the energy rivalry in the eastern Mediterranean. The prevailing view in Ankara holds that Egypt has an incentive to enter into unconditional talks with Turkey on delimiting maritime boundaries between the two countries because such an accord could allow it to claim a zone larger than the one under its existing deal with Greece. Turkey, in turn, would bolster its standing in the eastern Mediterranean while Greece and its supporters would have to reposition themselves. Furthermore, a Turkish-Egyptian deal would encourage Israel to soften its attitude toward Turkey and could lend international viability to the maritime delimitation deal that Ankara signed with Libya’s interim government in 2019. 

The second reason is Ankara’s gradual realization of the limits of its capacity and influence in the region.