A few days after US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said Iran could be weeks away from obtaining sufficient fissile material for a nuclear bomb, Israel’s annual intelligence assessment presented a completely different forecast. According to the report compiled by the Military Intelligence Directorate, Iran is at least two years away from nuclear breakout capability. From the moment it decides to enrich uranium to a 90% level, military intelligence Chief Maj. Gen. Tamir Hayman told reporters on Feb. 9, Iran will need two years to arrive at a bomb.

His assessment appears to provide a direct response to Blinken’s remarks in yet another round of a US-Israeli intelligence-diplomacy duel being conducted in recent weeks mostly behind the scenes. Blinken’s comments hardly assuaged Israel’s concerns. On the contrary, they were perceived as an attempt to provide an advance alibi for a possible decision by President Joe Biden on a speedy return to the nuclear agreement between Iran and world powers from which the United States withdrew under the Trump administration.

“Blinken’s remarks were true, but partial,” a senior Israeli military source told Al-Monitor on condition of anonymity, “They only related to fissile material, but not to many other elements required for operational nuclear capability.” The source was referring inter alia to the fact that even once fully enriched, the uranium must still be made into a nuclear warhead, which then requires an appropriate missile and technological abilities to mount it properly for delivery to the target. Iran has yet to reach such capacity. Its nuclear program was dealt a severe blow in recent years and the 2020 assassination of nuclear scientist Mohsen Fakhrizadeh blocked its progress and perhaps even set it back. “It’s not that Israel is sanguine about the issue, but describing the situation as if Iran is on the verge of an operational bomb is incorrect,” the military source said.

Israel’s point is simple: There is no need to run amuck back to the 2015 nuclear agreement. While Israel’s leadership regards that deal as particularly bad, enabling Iran to become a nuclear threshold state under the so-called sunset clause that lifts restrictions on Iran's nuclear enrichment program after 2025, nothing is that urgent. As previously reported, Israel is exerting heavy pressure on the Biden administration to refrain from lifting sanctions on Iran and instead exploit Iran’s current weakness to impose on it a new, improved 25-year agreement that would also limit its ballistic missile capabilities and block its support of terrorism in the Middle East.