In the puzzle that is known as the Iran nuclear deal — the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) — the United States holds the key, China’s Foreign Ministry said Feb. 24. Beijing insisted that Washington’s return to the deal and lifting of sanctions against Tehran would transform the critical gridlock that Iran’s nuclear program is facing from a challenge into an international opportunity.  

But we are in a different geopolitical environment today than when the deal was first signed in 2015. Iran has emerged as arguably China’s most strategic ally in the region. Concurrently, US relations with both Iran and China have deteriorated since February 2006, when the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Board of Governors referred the Iranian nuclear case to the United Nations Security Council, prompting the formation of the nuclear deal.

After Washington unilaterally withdrew from the JCPOA in 2018, a “maximum pressure” campaign targeted Iran’s economic sector. 

Despite a flurry of these sanctions aimed at crippling Tehran’s purchasing power, China has acted as Iran’s lifeline. Oil imports from Iran to Beijing steadily rose to millions of barrels per day. And the sides are reportedly close to finalizing a 25-year trade and military agreement that will see China invest about $400 billion in Iran’s banking, telecommunication, transport and infrastructure sectors in exchange for a discounted supply of Iranian oil.