What Navalny case says about Russia’s approach in Syria
The case of Russia opposition figure Alexey Navalny — and the Kremlin's reaction to his investigations — tells a lot about Moscow's approach to the conflict in Syria.
The events of the Arab Spring became a convenient reference point for journalists and experts whenever the topic of contemporary protests within the United or Russia was brought up. The parallels were stark as President Vladimir Putin’s third presidential term started against the backdrop of street demonstrations in Moscow’s Bolotnaya Square as protest activity ramped up in Syria and transitioned into a full-blown civil war. Putin’s own supporters equated the two events, framing them as national governments fighting “foreign aggression.” Yet that message had to be abandoned to avoid unfavorable connotations for the Kremlin stemming from the anti-dictatorial nature of the protests in the Middle East.
The recent mass protests in Russia sparked by the detention of opposition activist Alexey Navalny and his investigation revealing the details of an opulent palace allegedly belonging to Putin have led some observers in the Middle East to again draw certain parallels with events in the region. There are already comparisons between Navalny’s return to Moscow after his poisoning by the military-grade nerve agent Novichok and the possible return to Syria of opposition leaders. They, too, it is argued, could challenge President Bashar al-Assad even though they face imminent arrest once they set foot in the country.
The Navalny case — and the Kremlin’s reaction to his investigation, including his arrest — tells us something about the Russian political system. And drawing conclusions about Russia’s domestic rules of the game might help an outside observer understand the rules of Moscow’s policy abroad, most notably in Syria.
Navalny never touched upon the Kremlin’s dealings in Syria, largely limiting his investigations to the high costs of the military campaign, juxtaposing them with the low incomes of ordinary Russians in remote provincial towns. Yet the Navalny case also dispels any illusions about the Kremlin charting a more constructive course in its Middle East policy that would help achieve political compromises.
