Israel’s latest political crisis will be decided, one way or another, at midnight on Dec. 23. There is no other time, no other way. The law stipulates that unless the Knesset approves the state’s 2020 budget by that deadline, the Knesset is automatically disbanded and elections for a new legislature are held three months hence, meaning March 23, 2021, for the fourth time in less than two years.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu faces one of the toughest decisions of his life this coming weekend. All his options are bad, with some being downright risky. If he opts for elections, he will be doing so without having first nailed down the support of his future coalition government partners. For the first time since he took office in 2009, the source of the imminent existential threat hovering over him lies to his political right, with not one but three challengers, all former close associates with the most lethal being former Likud stalwart Gideon Saar.
Netanyahu’s options are clear. He could keep charging toward elections in hopes of overcoming his rivals against all odds, or he could compromise with his government partner/political rival, Defense Minister Benny Gantz. However, the only feasible compromise in the time left would entail concession — Netanyahu’s concession, and he hates giving in. The compromise that the Likud was willing to entertain two-three weeks ago, to extend the government’s term in order to keep Netanyahu in power until 2022 before he has to make way for Gantz under their power sharing deal, is no longer relevant. It would require amending Israel’s quasi-constitutional Basic Law and a special 70-member majority support in the 120-seat Knesset. Since Saar quit the Knesset last week and took two other coalition members with him — Knesset members Zvi Hauser and Yoaz Hendel — Netanyahu’s government no longer commands 70 seats.
The only relatively easy option remaining is to annul the law stipulating the Knesset’s automatic disbandment if the budget is not approved. This is the solution for which Gantz is pushing. It would close off Netanyahu’s remaining loophole to wiggle out of his deal with Gantz and deprive him of the promised job switch in November 2021.
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