Americans may be glued to the televisions and social media, but Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is not taking the week off for the US election.

Some of his more assertive policies may in fact be designed to hedge against the uncertainty of a Joe Biden presidency, which appears to be the likely outcome as we go to press.

One such hedge was Turkey’s testing of the Russian S-400 missile system last month. US President Donald Trump has until now been Erdogan’s firewall against congressionally mandated sanctions over Ankara’s decision to buy weapons from Moscow. But that cozy relationship between the two leaders appears likely to end soon. Already, Biden has been the target of a negative press campaign in Turkey’s pro-government media, as Semih Idiz explains in a recent Al-Monitor podcast.

Erdogan has launched Turkey on an increasingly assertive and independent regional posture. Unlike Americans on the right and left, the concept of "endless wars" doesn’t register for him. And despite being a member of NATO, and a onetime aspirant for European Union membership, Erdogan seems to relish accusing Europe, and especially France, of mistreating Muslims, with pointed back-and-forths threatening boycotts and sanctions.