Turkey’s state run TRT news channel declared in a tweet slugged “Breaking News” Wednesday that Azerbaijan had declared victory in its ongoing war with Armenia over the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh enclave. The conflict entered its sixth week with reports of indiscriminate attacks on both sides, which the UN says could amount to war crimes.

TRT deleted the tweet soon after it emerged that Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev was merely repeating claims in an interview with Italy’s La Repubblica that he has been making for some time: that his country has prevailed in the worst outbreak of hostilities between the former Soviet states in the southern Caucasus since they first went to war over the predominantly Armenian enclave inside Azerbaijan in 1991.

There is little doubt that the oil-rich South Caucasus nation has succeeded in reversing some of the humiliating losses it suffered when it lost around a fifth of its territory to Armenian forces and was forced to call off the fight in 1994. According to the latest field reports, Azerbaijani forces have clawed back a large chunk of territory occupied by Armenian forces in the area separating Nagorno-Karabakh from Iran for the first time in 26 years and have advanced to the critical Lachin corridor connecting Armenia proper to the enclave. “This has huge symbolic, strategic and political significance for Baku,” said Zaur Shiriyev, an Azerbaijan analyst for the International Crisis Group. Shiriyev said Azerbajianis believe that it is only a matter of time before Azerbaijani forces capture Shusha, the highest point in Nagorno-Karabakh, giving it strategic dominance over the entire enclave, including over the capital of the self-declared Republic of Nagorno-Karabakh.

Azerbaijan’s energy earnings have allowed it to build up an arsenal of sophisticated weaponry with precisely this moment in mind. Israel provided a fair amount in exchange for being allowed to use Azerbaijan to spy on Iran. But it was Turkey’s assistance — with hundreds of military trainers, armed drones and Syrian mercenaries reportedly deployed in Azerbaijan’s favor — that helped to decisively tip the balance. Some analysts contend, however, that there are signs that Turkey and Azerbaijan, which have effectively sabotaged attempts by Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe mediators led by the United States, Russia and France to establish an enduring cease-fire, are gearing to wind down the campaign. TRT’s premature declaration of victory on Azerbaijan’s behalf may have been spurred by official thinking in Ankara.