After getting what he wished for in the Turkish Cypriot presidential polls, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan should be careful about what comes next in the eastern Mediterranean.

In the second round of the elections Oct. 18, Prime Minister Ersin Tatar won a surprising victory against President Mustafa Akinci. After the first round of the elections Akinci secured the endorsement of the third-place finisher, which theoretically would have put Akinci above 50% in the second round. In a sense, his reelection seemed assured, even if by a small margin. 

In anticipation of Akinci’s victory, an independent news website trumpeted “the defeat of neo-Ottomanism in Cyprus” — a clear jab at Erdogan and his Justice and Development Party (AKP). Last month, Akinci had accused the Erdogan government of interfering in the elections, adding further strain to the tumultuous relationship between the two presidents.

Tatar’s victory gave Erdogan and the pro-AKP media a big sigh of relief, but the election result will complicate domestic politics in Turkish Cyprus and the already tough geopolitical and diplomatic situation in the eastern Mediterranean, where Cyprus’ partition since 1974 is a major source of tensions.