As the four-day-old war pitting Azerbaijan against Armenia over the breakaway Nagorno-Karabakh enclave continues to escalate with dozens of casualties on both sides, there are growing indications that the latest conflagration between the traditionally hostile former Soviet states was not sparked by accident but was preplanned by Azerbaijan and its regional ally Turkey. The unanswered question is where regional heavyweight Russia stands in those plans. Is it supporting Turkey and Azerbaijan for its own strategic purposes, or is it biding its time before slapping them down?

The Kremlin has a military pact with Armenia and a large base there close to the Turkish border. It supplies weapons to both countries and has avoided openly taking sides. It’s joined the United States and NATO’s calls for an immediate cease-fire. Azerbaijan and Armenia have rebuffed the calls.

Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu accused Moscow of siding with Armenia today. "If Armenia hadn’t enjoyed support today from other countries — from the West, Russia — it wouldn’t be able to muster up this courage," he said in an interview with the state-run Anadolu news agency. He made no bones about Turkey’s position, saying, “We will do what is required if Azerbaijan wants to resolve this [conflict] on the ground.”

Armenia’s Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan says Turkey is providing arms and military advisers to Azerbaijan. Despite Azerbaijani denials, various Syrian rebels attached to Turkish-mentored brigades continue to confirm their presence in Azerbaijan, saying they were transported there by Turkey.