Libyan cease-fire casts cloud over Erdogan’s ambitions
Having failed to advance its military intervention in Libya, Ankara has grudgingly endorsed a cease-fire in the conflict, but its ambitions appear intact for the process down the road.
Libya is debating a fresh cease-fire with both overlapping and conflicting terms by the warring parties, very much in the style of the blind men describing an elephant. In any case, the current equilibrium — the result of Turkey’s military intervention in favor of the Tripoli forces and the ensuing “red line” that Egypt and Russia set at Sirte and al-Jufra — is dictating a return to the negotiating table.
On Aug. 21, both Fayez al-Sarraj, the head of the Tripoli-based Government of National Accord, and Aguila Saleh, the leader of the rival House of Representatives in eastern Libya, called for a cease-fire following a flurry of diplomacy marked by German and American efforts.
Sarraj said the coastal city of Sirte, the gateway to Libya’s Oil Crescent, and al-Jufra, home to a key air base, should be demilitarized and placed under mutual security arrangements to achieve a viable cease-fire. The ultimate goal, he stressed, is to secure full sovereignty over Libya and the pullout of foreign forces and mercenaries. He called for the resumption of oil exports, provided that revenues remain untouched in a special bank account until a political settlement is reached in line with the terms of the Berlin Conference in January, and proposed presidential and parliamentary elections in March 2021.
Saleh, for his part, called for a new presidential council, based temporarily in Sirte, security forces from multiple regions to police the city, the freezing of oil revenues at the Libyan Foreign Bank until a settlement is reached in line with the Berlin Conference and the Cairo Declaration of June 6 under the auspices of the United Nations, the US administration and others backing peace and stability in Libya. The cease-fire, he said, should preclude any foreign military interventions and lead to the expulsion of mercenaries and the dismantling of militias to restore full national sovereignty.
