The first round in the Turkish-French confrontation over Libya, coming atop the energy row in the eastern Mediterranean, resulted in Ankara’s favor. In early July, a furious France pulled out from a NATO security mission in the Mediterranean after a NATO investigation did not back its allegations that two Turkish frigates harassed a French warship as it sought to inspect a vessel suspected of carrying weapons to Libya last month.

As Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan savored the outcome of the investigation, many in Ankara were quick to conclude that French power was in decline. Turkey's state-run Anatolia news agency has said that France lacks coherent strategies and tools to exert influence in the region, struggles to get support from other European heavyweights, is still haunted by its army’s “debacle” in World War II and “cannot stomach” Turkey’s military capabilities. The argument goes that France is trying to pit Turkey against Russia, while also hoping for a Turkish-Egyptian war in Libya.

A main point of strength for Turkey in Libya is that it backs the UN-recognized government in Tripoli. France, for its part, accuses Turkey of using Islamist militants, drawing mostly on the notion of fighting terrorism. But due to diverging priorities, France has failed to impress its Western partners, many of whom have not even made an issue of Turkey’s transfer of Syrian jihadis to Libya.

France’s essential misfortune in Libya stems from falling on the same side with Russia. It has ended up largely isolated in NATO as Washington came to prioritize the prevention of Russian entrenchment in Libya after initially winking at Khalifa Hifter, the leader of the eastern forces, and sympathizing with Egypt’s concerns over the Muslim Brotherhood. Russia entered the game after France had already put its bets on Hifter. Ostensibly, everyone was investing in a “secular” alternative that would defeat the Islamists. France could have hardly foreseen that Turkey would intervene directly on the side of the Tripoli government, linking the conflict to the energy rivalry in the eastern Mediterranean, and that Washington would come to back Ankara.