The fast-paced advance of the Turkish-backed Tripoli forces in Libya has stalled at the key coastal city of Sirte as Russia’s role in the conflict has grown more assertive, heralding a tough bargaining between Ankara and Moscow.

Turkish drones, which helped turn the tide in favor of the Government of National Accord, have run into a range of constraints as government troops moved farther from Tripoli in pursuit of Khalifa Hifter’s Libyan National Army. On the Hifter side, meanwhile, drones provided by the United Arab Emirates have been joined by Russian MiG-29 jets as Russia appears to be trying to impede any advance to Sirte. 

Hifter’s setbacks around Tripoli had raised expectations that the parties would return to the positions they held before the Libyan National Army launched its thrust on the capital in April 2019 and that a Turkish-Russian partnership would take shape to steer the process down the road. The first stab at such collaboration was actually made in January after Ankara signed a maritime demarcation accord with the Government of National Accord and Turkey stepped up its military involvement in Libya, but the attempt fell through as Hifter persisted in trying to capture Tripoli. Following the Libyan National Army’s loss of the al-Watiya base last month, Moscow pulled the Wagner mercenaries backing Hifter to al-Jufra in central Libya, which was seen as a sign that the area would become a Russian red line. 

Hifter captured al-Jufra in 2017, while Sirte, some 300 kilometers (190 miles) to the north, fell to his forces in June 2019. By deploying at least 14 MiG-29 and Su-24 jets to al-Jufra in late May, Russia showed it would stand its ground there. It has shown no flexibility about letting Sirte fall, either, dashing Ankara’s hopes of repeating the relatively easy victories of al-Watiya and Tarhuna.