In one poll after another, Turkey’s most respected pollsters have seen a sharp decline in the vote share of the People’s Alliance. The People’s Alliance is the electoral coalition established in February 2018 between the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) and its ultranationalist ally, the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP).

According to KONDA, the AKP’s vote share has dropped below 30%; the fast-growing undecided vote comprises the biggest bloc at 36%. Eurasia Public Opinion Research Center’s poll, which was published June 16, puts the AKP’s share at 35.1% and the MHP's share at 7.1% when the undecided votes are distributed. Metropoll Research's May 2020 results show the AKP’s vote share at 30.7% with the MHP's share at 7.3%. 

Director of Eurasia Public Opinion Research Center Kemal Ozkiraz told Al-Monitor, “Support for the presidential system [dropped] below 30% in our May 2020 polls. About one-third of People’s Alliance voters say they would have voted 'no' if the referendum for the presidential system would have been repeated.”

Simultaneously, these polling agencies have posted a slight increase in the vote share of the opposition bloc known as the Nation's Alliance, which includes the largest opposition party — the Republican People’s Party (CHP) — and its ally nationalist IYI Party (Good Party).