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The Takeaway: Are Egypt, Ethiopia on brink of water war over Nile dam?

Highlights: Trump administration may be last, best bet to head off conflict; Also: Egypt’s fading hookah culture; Basra’s dirty water; Turkey’s currency dump; Amberin Zaman talks Syria, the Kurds and Turkey on new podcast!

(FILES) This file photo taken on December 26, 2019 shows a general view of the Blue Nile river as it passes through the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), near Guba in Ethiopia. - The Nile, Egypt's lifeline since Pharaonic days, faces massive strain from pollution, over-use and climate change -- and now the threat of a colossal dam being built far upstream in Ethiopia. When its London-sized reservoir starts to fill this summer, Egypt fears the mega-project will spell an existential threat to its teemin
This file photo taken on Dec. 26, 2019 shows a general view of the Blue Nile river as it passes through the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), near Guba in Ethiopia — Eduardo Soteras/AFP via Getty Images
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The Lead: Nile Dam talks seek to head off Egypt-Ethiopia conflict
 
 

“Life and Death”: In an exclusive interview with Al-Monitor in September 2019, Egyptian Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry told me that “For Egypt, the matter of the Nile is a matter of life and death,” adding, “I don’t think anybody would agree that Ethiopian development should come at the expense of the lives of Egyptians.

 

Those are the stakes, as Egypt sees them, if Ethiopia goes ahead with filling the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) next month without complying with the technical arrangements agreed back in February among Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan, as mediated by the United States and World Bank in Washington.

 

“This is a watershed period for the Middle East. Its place in the world system will not be as it was, and it is now facing its destiny,” Kepel says.

 

Background: Ethiopia began building the GERD in 2011 to generate hydroelectric power. The dam is located in northwest Ethiopia, on the Blue Nile River near the Sudanese border. The Blue Nile joins the White Nile in Sudan and then flows into Egypt. The Nile is the only water source for Egypt, which has a population of approximately 100 million. Egyptians are concerned that the dam, absent provisions agreed upon in Washington, will dramatically reduce water flow to their country. For Ethiopia, though, the dam is crucial: Once completed, it will be the largest hydropower plant in Africa and the foundation of the country’s power needs.

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