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1. Is Iran rethinking its commitment to Assad? Israel thinks so.
Iran may be rethinking its commitments in Syria, according to Israeli security officials, who perceive a possible Iranian retrenchment in Tehran’s approach to Syria, reports Ben Caspit.
Five reasons: Iran may indeed be adapting its position in Syria in response to any or all of the following:
- The US policy of maximum pressure is taking a terrible toll on Iran’s economy and making foreign adventures unaffordable.
- COVID-19 and the drop in oil prices are exacerbating those pressures.
- Israeli bombing of Iranian positions in Syria (for which Israel does not always take credit), including the May 4 attack on the Syrian Scientific Studies and Research Center in Aleppo (presumed to be connected to a precision missile project) is taking its toll.
- The US killing of Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Quds Force commander Qasem Soleimani, the architect of Iran’s strategy in Syria, on Jan. 3, may have prompted a pause or rethink by Iranian leaders.
- Syrian President Bashar al-Assad is more secure, thanks to recent military victories giving both his regime and Iran some room to alter their relationship.
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Our take: Iran may be rethinking its approach to Syria, but a withdrawal is doubtful. Iran is not the type to pack up and go home. Next to Iraq, Syria is Iran’s most critical ally in the region, going back to 1979. It is the bridge and lifeline of the so-called “resistance axis,” from Iran to Iraq and Syria, and on to Lebanon, Hezbollah and even Gaza. That said, Iran’s economy is reeling, forcing its leaders to focus on domestic matters, like the coronavirus and restarting the economy. Cash is tight, and the IRGC may be feeling the pinch. All five reasons above could justify a retrenchment in Syria, which could be tactical or temporary. But don’t count on Iran to give up on Assad and Syria.
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2. China ramps up COVID diplomacy in the Gulf
China is stepping up its diplomacy in the Gulf, seizing an opportunity in the novel coronavirus crisis to get an edge on the United States in the region. | | | |
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