In late March, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu met with Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in Damascus to discuss the ongoing battle for Idlib as well as Russian humanitarian assistance to Syria. Following Shoigu’s visit, the Russian navy delivered medical assistance, including equipment to combat the novel coronavirus outbreak in Syria, whose health system has been decimated from almost a decade of civil war. Moscow's actions might appear at first glance to be an act of altruism, but the Kremlin’s support for Assad is in fact part of a well-thought-out plan to advance Russian interests in the region. 

Since the collapse of the Soviet Union and a decade of economic stagnation, President Vladimir Putin has embarked on a strategy of Russian resurgence. He hopes to use his brand of authoritarianism to project his reliability as a supportive ally and promote the perception of Russia as a player on the world stage equal in stature to the United States.

Putin views the Middle East as a proxy battleground, with Russia vying for influence with its main enemy, the United States, and seeks to drive a wedge between the Americans and their allies, especially NATO member Turkey. He has latched on to turmoil in the region to exploit what he views as Western policy failures and to present Russia as a steady alternative to Middle Eastern leaders. Putin sees value in rekindling the Soviet approach of playing benefactor and dependable partner during crises.

Syria has become the linchpin for Russia’s effort to boost its throw weight in the Middle East. In September 2015, a squadron of Russian jets deployed to an air base near Latakia, an Assad stronghold. It was Russia’s first military deployment outside the former borders of the Soviet Union since its disastrous invasion of Afghanistan in 1979. Within days, some 30 Russian warplanes started to turn the war in Assad’s favor. Putin’s first order of business had been to game out the response of US President Trump before taking action in the Middle East. No other American president had had to seriously consider such a scenario since the fall of the Soviet Union.