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1. Putin gives a break to Idlib, bails out Erdogan — for now
Russian President Vladimir Putin and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan agreed to a memorandum of understanding for a new cease-fire in Idlib on March 5 in Moscow, in an amendment to the previous cease-fire agreed in Sochi in September 2018.
The good news: The Syrian people, who have suffered far too much, as well as Turkish and Syrian forces get a break from the fighting as long as the cease-fire holds.
Saving what face is left: Like previous cease-fires, few observers are giving this one much of chance. Erdogan showed a weak hand heading to Moscow, Cengiz Candar explains, and the “additional protocol” signed there mostly codified the Syrian military advances since December. There is no mention in the MOU of the 12 Turkish military outposts around Idlib, the vital M5 highway (taken by Syria) nor the Syrian Kurds in the northeast (who Erdogan considers terrorists). The M4 highway, presently in the hands of Turkey’s Syrian proxies, will now be subject to a Russian-Turkish safety corridor and joint patrols. The MOU calls for displaced Syrians to return to their homes but that’s going to take a while, given the extent of destruction and fear of reprisal by the Syrian government and allied armed groups.
Who controls the skies: While the new deal makes no mention of the airspace over Idlib, Metin Gurcan explains that for now, the understanding seems to be that there is “a de facto bisection of Idlib’s airspace. By using armed drones, Turkey has been able to secure sporadic air supremacy, albeit a limited one at low altitudes of up to 10 kilometers [33,000 feet]. Russia remains the boss in mid and high altitudes and Idlib’s airspace remains off-limits to Turkish aircraft and helicopters.” | | | |
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