Defense Minister Naftali Bennett’s announcement March 11 that the total closure of the Gaza Strip will be extended until the night of March 14 shows how deeply concerned Israel’s political and defense leadership is about an outbreak of the novel coronavirus there. The threat of COVID-19 reaching Gaza and sparking an extreme humanitarian health crisis is real. So far, there have been no reports of people in Gaza being infected by the coronavirus. This can be attributed to the territory’s isolation, which offers Gaza relative safety from the virus. The problem is that according to every assessment, it is only a matter of time before the first cases are identified there. Given current circumstances, it is doubtful that the flimsy infrastructure in the most densely populated region in the world would be able to contend with a dramatic crisis of such serious proportions.

The sensitive nature of the defense minister’s decision and its political and security volatility required coordination with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu before it could be released. On one hand, this decision was intended to keep developments in Gaza under control. On the other hand, it was not intended to result in a total, long-term closure of the border crossings. Israel is worried that an economic catastrophe in Gaza would result in sheer chaos. After all, Gaza already suffers from widespread poverty and unemployment. It has teetered on the verge of economic collapse for years.

All of this is happening with Israel caught in the middle of the worst political crisis in its history, with no end in sight. After a third election that left the country in limbo, Netanyahu finds himself facing what may be the most severe economic, social and health crisis in its history. And all of this is happening with Netanyahu’s trial for corruption scheduled to begin in the Jerusalem District Court next week, leaving his political future uncertain. Despite that, the chance of a fourth round of elections anytime soon gets smaller by the day. It is obvious by now that if the coronavirus continues to spread, it will be impossible to hold another election in Israel. Meanwhile, Netanyahu took the step of announcing that all events with over 100 participants are banned until further notice.

A senior political source told Al-Monitor that a pandemic in Gaza is Israel’s greatest nightmare. In fact, worries that some sort of health emergency might take place have been raised over the years in regular assessment meetings. “Before this, the concern was of some kind of plague erupting in Gaza, killing thousands of people and more because of poor sanitation. But this is different. Gaza is isolated, and as a result, is protected, but if we seal it off hermetically, we would cause civil unrest. Images of tens of thousands of Gazans along the border fence with Israel could send us into a downward tailspin. It is a short path from that to an outbreak of violence and maybe even a third intifada. People will have nothing to lose. At this stage, hundreds of thousands of Gazans still go to work in the morning, and hundreds of thousands of children go to school. As soon as all that falls apart, we will be facing a whole new situation,” said the source, who spoke on condition of anonymity.