Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is conducting a two-pronged campaign. He is seeking to isolate, contain and eliminate the novel coronavirus spreading throughout the country, at the same time making cynical use of the pandemic in an effort to impose the same fate on his political rival, Blue and White Chair Benny Gantz.
Netanyahu’s overriding goal is to dismantle the Gantz-led bloc of parties that coalesced against him following the March 2 elections, which accounted for 62 seats in the 120-member Knesset (although the bloc shrank to 61 after the desertion by Gesher leader Orly Levy-Abekasis). At this stage, Netanyahu appears to be advancing toward his goal, at least the political one. Blue and White, which only recently celebrated its first anniversary, is nearer than ever to being dismantled or splitting in two. One group would consist of the two former army chiefs, Gantz and Gabi Ashkenazi, who are willing to join a power-sharing unity government with Netanyahu as premier for the first part of its term, followed by Gantz. The other group would include the other two party seniors, Yair Lapid and former army chief Moshe Ya’alon. Neither is willing to join Netanyahu “for even a minute.”
On March 15, President Reuven Rivlin tasked Gantz with forming Israel’s next government after 61 Knesset members recommended him for the job. The 61 included all 15 members of the predominantly Arab unified Joint List. This historic endorsement would have been exciting had it not dealt a potentially severe blow to Blue and White. Many of its supporters from the soft right (as many as the votes needed for six or seven Knesset members) consider a government supported even just from the outside by an Arab party as a nonstarter. More specifically, two of Blue and White’s Knesset members, Zvi Hauser and Yoaz Hendel, have already announced they would refuse to vote for a Gantz-led government supported by Arab lawmakers, even if the Arab party won’t be part of the coalition. Thus, Gantz’s slim majority has shrunk from 61 to 59. Chances of establishing a narrow government until others from the right agree to join are close to nil.
Netanyahu is well aware of this. He has woven a trap around Gantz and is letting him stew within its confines. Once his 28-day deadline expires, it will be Netanyahu’s turn to take a crack at forming a government. His chances of mobilizing deserters from Gantz’s bloc are far greater than the reverse. Netanyahu’s bloc of right-wing, ultra-Orthodox parties is solid, loyal and more homogenous than the fragile, eclectic makeup of the center-left bloc, which is also less determined. Gantz knows that he must not give Netanyahu the chance to form a government, and even more so that he must not enable a fourth round of elections, which would bury Blue and White.
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