In the more than three months since it first was reported in China, the novel coronavirus has changed lives around the world dramatically. Its impact has stretched from micro-level social interactions to global functions, with many observers predicting it will effect lasting change on societies. Thus it is natural to question how it might influence the complicated rivalry between Iran and the United States.

The conflict has been more or less static since the assassination of Maj. Gen. Qasem Soleimani by the United States and the strike targeting Iraq’s Ain al-Asad military base by Iran in response. But could the coronavirus pandemic cause tensions to boil over again, or will it keep the crisis at bay for now?

Logically speaking, there are three possible paths for this crisis: escalation, de-escalation and the status quo. In any case, one factor is vital to consider: the economic consequences of the pandemic for Iran.

COVID-19’s impact on Iran’s already-pressured economy is no secret. The pandemic is reducing the government’s income and increasing expenses. During just the first three weeks of the pandemic, the government allocated about half a billion dollars to contain the virus’ spread and take care of infected patients. Also, when the Persian New Year vacation period concludes April 3, the government will probably have to pay grants to a large number of citizens who have lost their jobs or failed to earn enough money due to restrictions on internal travel and businesses.