For nearly two years, Moscow has been facing an inevitable choice between Ankara and Damascus in Syria’s rebel-held province of Idlib, the consequences of which will bear directly on the Turkish-Russian alignment in recent years, which has been shaped by the “strongman brotherhood” between Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Russian President Vladimir Putin. Developments in Idlib over the past several weeks signal that Moscow is opting for Damascus at the expense of losing Ankara in northwestern Syria.

Regime forces, backed by Russian air power, have stepped up their attacks on Idlib since early January, advancing both from the south of the province and western Aleppo. The escalating thrust is changing the military picture in the entire region to the west of the Euphrates, while putting Turkish-Russian ties to a serious test.

On the southern front, the advance of the regime forces, aided by Russian warplanes and special forces, resulted Jan. 28 in the fall of Maaret al-Numan, an opposition stronghold of strategic and symbolic importance, considered the hub of armed Sunni resistance since 2011.

Next in line in the south is the district of Saraqib. According to open sources, tank-supported Turkish mechanized units deployed in the town center Jan. 30, while setting up checkpoints on the M5 highway in the north and south of the district. Saraqib is emerging as the most critical spot in the arm wrestling between Ankara and Damascus in the coming days, as Ankara appears resolved to not concede Saraqib as easily as Maaret al-Numan.