Turkey, like all other regional players, is trying to adapt to the profound geopolitical shift in the Middle East after a US drone attack killed Gen. Qasem Soleimani, the commander of Iran’s elite Quds Force and the spearhead of Iranian paramilitary operations in the region.

In the two days after the Jan. 3 attack in Baghdad, Ankara followed a wait-and-see approach, reeling from the shock, as evidenced by the words of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. “Curiously, I had a conversation with [US President Donald] Trump that evening, and this incident erupted four or five hours later. Evidently, it was all planned. We were shocked by the news,” Erdogan said in a Jan. 5 television interview. 

During that period of shock, Tehran made diplomatic efforts to draw Ankara to its side. The Iranian Embassy in Ankara tweeted that Erdogan had a phone call with Iranian President Hassan Rouhani and quoted him as saying, “The passing of the martyr Soleimani is deeply saddening. I am aware of how furious the Iranian people, you and the supreme leader are.” In a low-profile denial soon after, Ankara said Erdogan did not call Soleimani a “martyr.” 

So far, the Turkish government appears to have skillfully fended off Tehran’s moves to pull Ankara to its side. Nevertheless, Soleimani’s killing has created a new geopolitical reality that requires Ankara to make some critical decisions.