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1. Nowhere to Go: Putin’s uncertain endgame in Syria
When Russian and Syrian forces besieged Aleppo in 2016, opposition and terrorist groups as well as thousands of civilians fled to Idlib governorate.
As a final siege of Idlib approaches, Sarah Dadouch reports in the Washington Post that there is a refrain in Syria of “There is no Idlib for Idlib” – meaning its residents and the armed groups there have nowhere to go.
‘Largest collection of al-Qaeda affiliates:’ There are approximately 20,000-30,000 terrorists in Idlib, according to UN and US estimates. The key al-Qaeda-linked force is Hayat Tahrir al-Sham. The effect is that parts of Idlib have become a big prison under the rule of armed gangs and radical Islamists. Michael Mulroy, former deputy assistant secretary of defense for the Middle East, said in May 2019, “Idlib is essentially the largest collection of al-Qaeda affiliates in the world.”
‘Dawn of Idlib:’ Syrian forces backed by Russian air power have been waging an offensive to reclaim the province, at a high humanitarian cost. According to the United Nations, over 700,000 Syrians have been displaced and at least 1,300 killed since May 2019. The latest phase of the conflict, called Operation Dawn of Idlib, began in December. Syria wants to retake control of highways in Idlib province linking Aleppo with Latakia and Hama to choke off the armed groups and expand the Syrian government’s reach between cities. | | | |
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