Israel’s security Cabinet discussed a long-term arrangement with Hamas Dec. 29, just four days after Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was publicly embarrassed by a rocket launched from the Gaza Strip disrupting his political rally in the town of Ashkelon. To the sounds of the blaring siren warning of an incoming rocket, Netanyahu’s bodyguards hustled him offstage Dec. 25 and took him to a sheltered area, in an incident eerily reminiscent of a rocket launch in September during a Netanyahu election rally in the nearby town of Ashdod. The September rocket did not appear to have any logical reason other than, perhaps, arrogance on the part of Islamic Jihad or its desire to boost morale within the ranks.

The unprovoked September rocket led Israeli defense officials to wonder whether the long-term deal under discussion with Hamas was truly the best default option for dealing with the Gaza problem. Would easing the blockade of the Gaza Strip and granting some relief to its residents guarantee an end to the festering violence against Israeli border communities?

Smarting from that embarrassing incident, and against the advice of top defense officials, Netanyahu seriously considered sending ground troops into Gaza in September to deal with the problem “once and for all.” Netanyahu’s national security adviser Meir Ben-Shabat even advised the chair of the Central Elections Committee, Justice Hanan Melcer, to prepare for a possible delay of the scheduled Sept. 17 elections if war breaks out in the south. At the same time, panicked Hamas leaders conveyed urgent messages to Israel through the heads of Egyptian intelligence, claiming they had not been responsible for the attack and accusing the Islamic Jihad commander of northern Gaza, Bahaa Abu el-Atta, of responsibility for embarrassing Netanyahu with a single rocket and provoking Hamas. Israel accepted the explanation, more or less, and drew conclusions from the incident.

Two months later, on Nov. 12, Israel killed the “rogue” Atta. Islamic Jihad responded with hundreds of rockets fired at Israel, but Hamas did not join in, despite the criticism it endured. The Israeli military concluded that the Hamas leadership was eager for a long-term deal, and approved wide-ranging relief measures for the Palestinians in order to move negotiations ahead.