The closer Israel gets to the most fateful elections of its history, the faster the pace of security-diplomatic developments, begging the question of what will come first: elections or confrontation. A new government or war?

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu returned on Sept. 9 to his favorite soapbox: Iran’s nuclear project. He sought to reenact his wildly successful 2018 unveiling of Iranian nuclear archives spirited by Israeli agents out of Tehran. This time, in a hastily called press conference, Netanyahu’s success was more limited. He claimed that inspectors of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) had found traces of uranium at the site he had pointed to during his UN General Assembly speech last year, and revealed the existence of a previously unknown site at which he claimed Iran had developed nuclear weapons. Netanyahu’s claim lacked detail: Iran shut down the second site in Abadah in July 2019 and it is unclear when any activity took place there. Nonetheless, the Israeli claim suggests Iran has violated its commitments under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.

Netanyahu is in the midst of a perfect storm. All his nightmares are converging: His toughest, most fateful election campaign has entered its final leg. The confrontation between Israel and Iran over the Iranian entrenchment in Syria is escalating even as the US administration's commitment to Netanyahu’s anti-Iranian campaign appears to be weakening. Netanyahu is fighting on these fronts at the same time, against great odds.

The timing of Netanyahu’s news conference was hardly coincidental. Two hours earlier, his drive to place hidden cameras at Israeli polling stations collapsed when a Knesset committee sank his proposed legislation on the issue. Then a news conference was convened in Vienna by IAEA Acting Director General Cornel Feruta, who had just returned from Tehran. Netanyahu set himself two goals: To create an Iran-centric, security-focused agenda ahead of the Sept. 17 vote and fight what he regards as the IAEA’s conciliatory attitude toward Iran. However, Netanyahu received a crushing blow two hours after his news conference from the least likely direction: his closest ally President Donald Trump, the gift that never stops giving.