Turkey’s ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP), in power since 2002, has seen a sharp decline in its political fortunes over the past year, with the crisis bruising the country standing out as the prime driver of the downtick. The opposition scored major victories in the local elections earlier this year, and economic grievances proved a major factor swaying the vote. The crisis has also facilitated the long-expected birth of a new party from within the AKP ranks, where many are believed to be silently frustrated with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s strongman rule.

Ali Babacan, the AKP’s economy czar until 2015, quit the party last month, rolling up his sleeves to create a new party backed by former President Abdullah Gul. It seems Babacan’s initiative will advance with support from domestic and external economic actors, including Turkey’s leading business organizations. 

In-house rifts are known to have hit the AKP a long time ago, but they have remained muffled as few have had the courage to openly speak against Erdogan, wary of the pressure they would face. What happened to Gul ahead of the June 2018 presidential polls is a case in point. The leadership of the main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) was widely rumored at the time to be weighing the option of backing Gul as a candidate against Erdogan. The two had fallen out after many years of close collaboration, including in creating the AKP. Gul was deterred from running in a not-so-polite fashion — the then-chief of staff landed in his backyard in a helicopter for an unlikely visit, accompanied by an Erdogan aide.

Though Gul remained on the sidelines at the time, he is now involved in the effort to create a center-right party to challenge the AKP, acting as a mentor to the younger Babacan, who enjoys credibility as the skipper of the economy in the years it flourished.