On Aug. 10, Russian Deputy Ambassador to the United Nations Dmitry Polyanskiy told reporters that Russia views the conflict in Yemen as “one of the most concerned topics on our agenda,” but he refused to comment on the Southern Transitional Council's (STC's) seizure of Aden. Polyanskiy’s ambiguous remarks did not include a reference to Russia’s support for Yemen’s territorial integrity and differed from the pro-unity statements released by the United States and the European Union in response to the clashes in Aden.

Russia’s cautious reaction to the STC’s triumph in Aden reveals its desire to remain nonaligned as the interests of Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) diverge in Yemen. Moscow’s hedging strategy also reflects the Russian expert community’s uncertainties about the depth and longevity of Saudi-UAE disagreements on Yemen. On the pessimistic end of the spectrum, Sergey Serebrov, a Yemen expert at the Moscow-based Institute of Oriental Studies, recently argued that the conflict in Yemen was no longer a “civil war” but the “product of the military intervention of the Arab coalition.” Other Russian analysts, like defense expert Kirill Semenov, dismissed the prospect of an “open Saudi-UAE conflict in Yemen” and noted the UAE’s cautious public statements on events in Aden.

Although Russia does not wish to interfere in the internal conflicts besetting the Arab coalition, Moscow also wants to preserve its growing stature as a diplomatic stakeholder in Yemen. In early July, UN Special Envoy for Yemen Martin Griffiths traveled to Moscow for discussions on Yemen’s peace process, and Russia subsequently met with senior officials aligned with Abed Rabbo Mansour Hadi’s government and the Houthi movement. As Russia has adhered to a policy of strategic nonalignment in Yemen, the Houthis and the STC view Russia as a valuable partner in their quests to obtain international legitimacy.

As Russia has consistently engaged in diplomacy with Houthi representatives since early 2015, Houthi officials hope that recent events in Aden will cause Moscow to endorse a new peace settlement that legitimizes the Houthis’ authority over Sanaa. Nasser Arrabyee, a prominent Sanaa-based commentator, told Al-Monitor that Houthi negotiators plan to draw attention to the “near war” between Saudi and Emirati allies in Yemen when engaging with Russian officials and emphasize that “only the Houthis can act like a state and can be trusted.” Arrabyee also stated that the contrast between the apparent cohesion of the Houthis and the “fragmented” Hadi coalition could convince Russia to lend support to the Houthi cause.