Up until several weeks ago, Israel assessed probability of a direct or indirect flare-up with Iran in one of the Israeli-Iranian conflict arenas as low. Until recently, Israel believed that Iran did not intend to find itself confronting the Israel Defense Forces, and that was the reason it had not responded to attacks attributed to the Israeli air force against Iranian targets in Syria, and that was also why its proxy Hezbollah was displaying restraint vis-à-vis Israeli activities against it. According to this assessment, Iran was investing most of its efforts in arranging terror attacks against Israelis in the West Bank and in encouraging and helping the Palestinian Islamic Jihad in Gaza to oppose any cease-fire deals with Israel and to continue stirring up trouble along the Gaza border.

In light of the rapidly escalating tensions between Iran and the United States in the Gulf it is in Iran’s best interest to keep upping the ante and fomenting instability along one of its fronts with Israel. A blowup, whether on the Golan Heights border with Syria or along the border with Lebanon, would give Iran a reason to keep defying the United States. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu convened the diplomacy-security cabinet on June 16 and 19 for the first time in months. The last thing he needs now is a commission of inquiry after the fact blaming him for failing to prepare and to share his preparations for the growing prospects of war with the interim caretaker government he heads.

Israel has also shifted position substantively as regards the conduct of US President Donald Trump. On June 20, for the first time in ages, unnamed Israeli analysts directed veiled criticism at Trump’s “weakness” on Iran, accusing him of being insufficiently “offensive” and slamming his confused reaction to the downing of the costly US drone over the Gulf. The report that Trump had ordered a military strike on Iranian targets only to rescind his order as the fighter jets were en route only sharpened the criticism by “diplomatic sources” described as close to Netanyahu.

It's a scenario we predicted several months ago: Trump would get cold feet once the moment of truth was at hand, lose interest or choke and avoid action. “The fact that the US did not respond to the drone downing and the attack on the tankers in the Gulf conveys weakness and boosts the self-confidence of the Revolutionary Guard,” an Israeli diplomatic source told Al-Monitor on condition of anonymity. “The president does not realize that in order for pressure on Iran to succeed, the Iranians must believe that he is capable of attacking. If they understand he is playing a game of chicken with them, they will manipulate him just as they did President [Barack] Obama.”