Can assault on Idlib facilitate Russia-Turkey deal?
As the Russian Khmeimim base has come under militant shelling, the Russian military boosted the Syrian army assault on Idlib amid speculation over a back-channel Russian deal with Turkey.
On May 6, the Idlib de-escalation zone saw a further deterioration of the situation. This zone, which spans parts of Idlib, Aleppo, Hama and Latakia provinces, is largely controlled by the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham militant group.
The Syrian armed forces and pro-Iranian militia loyal to President Bashar al-Assad launched an offensive in the al-Ghab Plain in Hama and in Latakia. The armed forces mainly targeted the town of Kafr Nabudah in Hama; heavy fighting raged there when the Syrian military met fierce resistance from the National Liberation Front, with positions changing hands several times.
In turn, the elite 42nd Brigade (Ghiath Forces) of Syria's 4th Armored Division, under command of Maher al-Assad, hit the community of Kabani in Latakia. The ground operation followed massive airstrikes by the Russian and Syrian air forces. However, the fighting has remained tactical, and the scale of a future campaign is yet to be seen.
Sources in the Russian Defense Ministry told the Russian newspaper Kommersant that the intensified hostilities occurred because Hayat Tahrir al-Sham had massed forces in what appeared to be an intent to mount an assault on Hama and because of drone attacks and shelling of the Russian Khmeimim military base launched from the de-escalation zone.
