President Hassan Rouhani announced earlier this month that Iran would suspend implementation of some of its commitments under the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), one year after the US withdrawal from the nuclear deal. Rouhani also signaled that unless the remaining JCPOA signatories stepped up to fulfill the promised economic dividends of the accord, then there would be subsequent phases of Iranian action ahead.

Meanwhile, a number of analysts and US politicians have argued that Iran is not serious about its claims. US Sen. Marco Rubio tweeted May 7, “Iran threat to leave JCPOA is a bluff. It’s part of a campaign to pressure Europe into helping them evade US sanctions.”

Yet Al-Monitor has learned that while the Iranian state’s initial decision was to leave the nuclear deal, Rouhani convinced the establishment to adopt a more gradual approach.

Rouhani’s plan may be to pressure Europe to find a solution to save the JCPOA, but he is quickly losing control of the situation. He may no longer have the clout to stand against pressure at home. Indeed, he no longer has the leverage to talk to the establishment about preserving “strategic patience,” which Iranian hard-liners have mocked as “the wait-for-Biden plan.”