Skip to main content

Can Turkey avert military assault on Idlib?

Damascus, Moscow and Tehran continue to exert pressure on Ankara to clear the region of jihadist elements.

A Syrian Army soldier loyal to Syria's President Bashar al-Assad forces stands next to a military weapon in Idlib, Syria January 21, 2018. Picture taken January 21, 2018. SANA/Handout via REUTERS ATTENTION EDITORS - THIS PICTURE WAS PROVIDED BY A THIRD PARTY. REUTERS IS UNABLE TO INDEPENDENTLY VERIFY THE AUTHENTICITY, CONTENT, LOCATION OR DATE OF THIS IMAGE. - RC19C0D8B740
A Syrian army soldier loyal to Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's forces stands next to a military weapon in Idlib, Syria, Jan. 21, 2018. — SANA/Handout via REUTERS

The political infighting in Turkey following the nationwide local elections on March 31 has shifted public focus away from the trouble brewing for Ankara in Syria’s northeast Idlib governorate.

The agreement between President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Russian President Vladimir Putin in Sochi in September 2018 is failing to prevent violence between the Syrian regime and the jihadist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS).

Ankara is increasingly concerned about an all-out operation by Russian- and Iranian-backed regime forces aimed at bringing the region under Damascus’ control.

The topic is expected to be high on the agenda of this week’s talks on Syria — backed by Turkey, Russia and Iran — in Kazakhstan’s capital, Astana. Meeting Russia’s special envoy for Syria, Alexander Lavrentiev, in Damascus last week, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad said the Sochi agreement had failed to eliminate jihadist terrorists in Idlib. Assad called on obstacles preventing the implementation of the agreement to be removed. Ankara, however, blames the regime for the escalating violence in Idlib.

SUBSCRIBER EXCLUSIVE

Continue reading this exclusive analysis

Original reporting and analysis unavailable elsewhere. Subscribe to AL-MONITOR to read this story and access everything we publish