Can Russia deliver a deal for Idlib between Turkey, Syria?
In Idlib, Moscow finds itself between the devil and the deep blue sea — a possible Syrian government offensive and Turkish constraints — but there is still reason to believe it can come up with a mutually acceptable deal for Damascus and Ankara.
Tensions continue to escalate in Syria's Idlib "deescalation zone," now primarily controlled by radical militant group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS). The zone, often referred to as Greater Idlib, also encompasses parts of Hama, Aleppo and Latakia provinces. Violence breaks out sporadically there between Syrian regime forces and the opposition and threatens to turn into a new, large-scale fight for the area.
Since late March, Russia has been promoting a narrative that HTS militants are planning a chemical provocation, supposedly aided by security forces of “certain Western nations.” Some media sources point to civilians departing Idlib as a sign they fear a chemical attack. According to certain reports, Syrian government troops recently discovered 20 containers of a “phosgene-like” substance in Taibat Al-Imam neighborhood near the Idlib deescalation zone.
The Syrian army offensive on Idlib was canceled due to the Russian-Turkish agreements reached in Sochi in September 2018. Yet since mid-March, Russian and Syrian air forces have been hitting targets in Greater Idlib. This offensive can be considered the largest one this year. April 8 talks in Moscow between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan led to a slight decrease in the bombings' intensity, yet the attacks have not ceased. On April 13, strikes destroyed HTS food warehouses in Aleppo province that were stocked with humanitarian aid the terrorists had earlier confiscated from local authorities. At the same time, the forces of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad subjected Greater Idlib to heavy shelling, which, according to the UN, led to at least 90 civilian deaths.
The HTS and its allies, in turn, launch their own assaults on the territories near Greater Idlib controlled by regime forces. The areas around Aleppo suffer the most, and the toll of civilian casualties there remains disturbing. The terrorist groups also regularly raid the positions of government forces.
