After the Likud’s successful showing in Israel's April 9 elections, US President Donald Trump rushed to congratulate Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. On April 10, Trump told reporters on the White House lawn, “I think we have a better chance now that Bibi has won.… I think we’ll see some pretty good action in terms of peace.” A few hours earlier that same day, Trump's national security adviser, John Bolton, had announced that the administration would be rolling out its long-awaited Middle East peace plan in the “very near future.” Regardless of such statements, it’s unlikely that many are enthusiastically anticipating the dawn of a new day. If anything, there appears to be a failure, or even an escalation, waiting to happen.

Before or soon after the next Israeli government is formed, the plan will be rolled out that the team headed by Jared Kushner, Trump's son-in-law and adviser, worked on for two years and changed substantially at least twice. Netanyahu, whether after reading it or only receiving general information about it, will praise the United States and its president, thank Trump for the extraordinary effort his administration invested in developing the plan, and call it an important move in a new and promising direction compared to previous plans. He will add that many points are acceptable to him, but there are also some troubling issues that would be very difficult to accept due to Israel's vital interest. Thus, although he sees the document as a basis for very serious negotiations with the Arab world and with the Palestinians, he will have to discuss it seriously with his colleagues in the government and deliver an official response as soon as possible. 

The ultra-Orthodox parties, it appears, will not throw obstacles in the prime minister’s path. Netanyahu could explain to the diminished right — minus the New Right, which didn’t surpass the vote threshold — that he does not intend to implement a plan that includes a territorial concession, that his stated acceptance of a two-state solution 10 years ago in his Bar-Ilan speech no longer stands and that the Palestinians will “do our work for us” in rejecting any offer Trump makes. If the right doesn't buy this approach, Netanyahu can promise that if the Palestinians surprisingly do not reject the plan out of hand, he will present conditions making it impossible to implement the plan, and Trump will be forced to remove it from the agenda. Netanyahu also has another card to play: A Palestinian rejection would make it easier for him to ask the leader of the free world to back the proposition Netanyahu announced on the eve of the election to annex all the settlements. With such arguments, it would be, it seems, hard for the right to insist on rejecting any plan out of hand.

All this could indeed happen. It wouldn’t be hard for the Palestinians to reject Trump’s plan, even without playing diplomatic games of delaying or presenting a letter with an infinite list of reservations. If they do reject it, Netanyahu could raise his annexation plan, which would cause most of the world to rear up on its hind legs. Trump himself might support the prime minister’s suggestion, not only because of his friendship with Netanyahu, but because of his anger at the Palestinians’ rejection.