By the end of Israel’s 2019 election campaign, only two political camps were left: the pro-Netanyahu camp and the anti-Netanyahu camp. Ideology went out the window and nuances received a dog’s funeral. The energy storms created by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s supporters and opponents shook the country with great force, crushing everything in its path. Blue and White, a hybrid party composed of foreign elements soldered together by Benny Gantz’ Israel Resilience, Yair Lapid’s Yesh Atid and Moshe Ya’alon’s Telem, destroyed the Labor party and thirstily swallowed up all the center-left votes while Netanyahu did the exact same thing to the right. He, too, swallowed up his camp’s votes.
The premier’s luck is that the constituencies of Israel’s right and ultra-Orthodox factions are much larger than the closed voters’ pool of the center-left. This year, Gantz and Yair Lapid provided the exact same number of mandates that the Zionist Camp and Yair Lapid brought the last time around in the 2015 elections: 35. That number — together with what remains of the Labor party, Meretz remnants and the two weakened Arab parties — offer sort of a repetition of those 2015 elections where Netanyahu assembles around him a majority right-wing camp. And so, Netanyahu has proven that he is the greatest of Israel’s political magicians of all time. His achievement is unbelievable, although it does not grant him immunity vis-a-vis the criminal process that will be speeded up the day after the elections. It is altogether possible that Israel may find itself facing elections again next year.
It has become clear that even three retired chiefs of staff, Blue and White’s Gantz, Ya’alon and Gabi Ashkenazi; two Israel Defense Forces generals, Elazar Stern and Orna Barbivai; and two deputy Mossad and Shin Bet heads, former Mossad deputy director Ram Ben-Barak and former Shin Bet deputy chief Yitzhak Ilan were not enough to bring down one Netanyahu. The prime minister also equipped himself with top-level campaign managers who were no less efficacious than those of his rivals: US President Donald Trump to his right, Russian President Vladimir Putin to his left — even leaving room for Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro, who rushed to beef up Netanyahu’s side in the week before the elections, visiting Israel at the end of March. The right-wing camp retains its large majority of the Israeli public and even increases the gap. Demographics remain on its side. There will be 16 ultra-Orthodox representatives in the Knesset this year: eight each from Yahadut HaTorah and the Shas Party. The ultra-Orthodox demographic data and high birth rate, which had not trickled down conspicuously to parliamentary representation in the past, is starting to leave its mark. Netanyahu is the winner who makes a clean sweep of the election. So long as the economy is good and security is reasonable, the Israelis have no impetus to switch their prime minister. The criminal files, investigations and indictments that are coalescing all fly over the heads of Netanyahu’s fans without leaving much of an impression. Just like in the United States: Either you’re for Trump or against him. There is no middle ground.
The abortive victory speech delivered by Benny Gantz close to midnight on April 9 will haunt him for a long time. Only one television sampling, Hadashot 12, gave him a serious advantage of four mandates at the time (33-37). The Kan News sample predicted an advantage of one mandate (36-37) and the sample of Hadashot 13 predicted a tie (36-36). Gantz announced victory in a desperate attempt to ensure the secret agreements he made with parties that were supposed to remain on Netanyahu’s side: Yisrael Beitenu of Avigdor Liberman and the Kulanu Party of Moshe Kahlon. According to these agreements, if Gantz would achieve a greater number of votes than Netanyahu, then Liberman and Kahlon would not recommend to President Reuven Rivlin that Netanyahu be the one to create the next government. That would open up the possibility of granting the government coalition-making process to Gantz and the Blue and White. But Gantz delivered his speech and his chances evaporated. Less than two hours passed before Netanyahu delivered his victory speech. This time, it was for real.
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