The Saudis are quietly watching developments in Algeria with great concern that the Arab Spring is coming back. They are worried about the implications of an increasingly incapacitated, elderly leader being ousted by popular demonstrations and demands for a more open political system — both anathemas to the Saudi absolute monarchy.

The kingdom was terrified by the Arab Spring in 2011 and offered Tunisia’s ousted president exile; he’s still there. It sent troops into Bahrain to stop the reform movement against the king; they are still there. The Saudis were horrified by the removal of Hosni Mubarak and spent a small fortune to help the army take power. Gen. Abdel Fattah al-Sisi had been the Egyptian defense attache in Riyadh. He was the kingdom’s man, and he still is.

At home, King Abdullah spent $130 billion to buy off potential unrest. He drew down Saudi reserves to raise salaries, build homes and improve the quality of life. It worked.

Algeria is the largest Arab country in size and has the largest defense budget in Africa. It has successfully defeated al-Qaeda in the Maghreb at its home in Algeria, just as the Saudis have defeated al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula inside Saudi Arabia.