Almost two months after forming a new Cabinet on Jan. 31, Lebanon’s government has begun to tackle its next challenge: passing vital economic reforms that aim to decrease the country’s budget deficit in order to unlock billions of dollars in pledged foreign investments and jumpstart economic growth.
While optimism among analysts about the implementation of these reforms remains generally low, Cabinet ministers claim there is a broad consensus across the government to cut costly electricity subsidies. According to officials from the Ministry of Energy and Water, a policy paper on the issue from the ministry is set to be released this week. Top politicians have also agreed that public pension reforms and measures to combat tax evasion will also be key points in negotiations that will take place over the coming weeks, and if passed, such measures are likely to have a significant impact on Lebanese public employees and consumers.
Economically and fiscally, Lebanon is suffering across the board: Its budget deficit sat at an estimated 11% of the GDP in 2018, its debt has ballooned to 150% of the GDP, and its economy was projected to have grown only by 1% in 2018 by the World Bank. In order to finance a host of public projects, Lebanon secured over $11 billion in soft loans from foreign investors at the Economic Conference for Development Through Reforms (CEDRE) conference in Paris in April 2018, but the release of the funds is conditioned on the country being able to reduce its deficit by 5% over the next five years.
Kevin Daly, the investment director for emerging market debt at Aberdeen Standard Investments, said reforms that would lead to such a reduction are crucial to encouraging growth, helping the government finance itself and increasing trust in the new Cabinet.
AL-MONITOR All-Access gives you unlimited access to all our journalism, the full Daily Briefing, exclusive interviews, premium newsletters, and live events — for less than $2/week.