Assad’s reconciliation with Arab world could upend Turkey’s plans
As Arab states warm toward Syria, Ankara might end up facing an anti-Turkish Arab bloc that could complicate its planned operations in northern Syria.
The apparent thaw in Damascus’ relations with the Arab world is more bad news for Turkey, which is already having a difficult time coping with the rapid change in the balance of power in Syria. If President Bashar al-Assad is welcomed back to the Arab fold, as many expect, it will be the final nail in the coffin of Ankara’s Syria policy, which has been plagued with misjudgments, false assumptions and overambitious expectations from the start.
As countries like Sudan, UAE, Bahrain, Egypt, Jordan, Iraq, Lebanon and Tunisia line up to favor the normalization of ties with Syria — and many expect Saudi Arabia to join them eventually — Ankara could end up facing an anti-Turkish Arab bloc it never expected. Such a bloc could also complicate Turkey’s plans to enter northern Syria to clear the town of Manbij and territories east of the Euphrates River from the Kurdish People's Protection Units (YPG), especially now that Damascus has declared its opposition to this incursion.
Turkey has problematic relations with almost if not all of the Arab countries listed above, most notably with the region’s key players Egypt and Saudi Arabia. These countries have given no indication that they are less concerned about Turkish meddling in their affairs than they are about Iranian interference. Almost all of them abhor Turkey’s support for the Muslim Brotherhood, which they believe poses an existential threat to their existing regimes, and have fought hard to roll back this group since the Arab Spring.
Some news portals that focus on the region are even citing unnamed Gulf officials as claiming that Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Egypt and Israel have been involved in secret talks about curbing Turkey. According to such accounts, these countries ultimately consider Turkey to be more of a threat because it is stronger than Iran.
