Turkey’s economic turmoil, fueled by a currency crisis amid unprecedented tensions with the United States last summer, has become the No. 1 concern of Turkish voters ahead of local elections on March 31. Two recent opinion polls suggest economic woes will sway the outcome of the elections, with the state of the economy and unemployment topping the list of what people see as the country’s primary problems.

In parallel, the surveys point to a decline in popular support for President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s Justice and Development Party (AKP), in power since 2002. The AKP is contesting the local elections in partnership with the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), which was its electoral ally also in last year’s presidential and parliamentary polls. The question now is whether the AKP could change the popular focus on the economy or make up for the loss of votes with MHP support.

In the first opinion poll, conducted by the Potsdam Institute for Applied Research in mid-January, the economy, unemployment and Syrians were the three top answers that respondents gave when asked what they saw as “Turkey’s most important problem.” According to the results, 34.5% saw the economy as the country’s top problem, followed by 14.6% who singled out unemployment. Remarkably, the issue of Syrian refugees rose for the first time high on the list, with 12.6% of respondents identifying Syrians as the country’s most important problem.

Asked whether they believed Turkey’s economy would return to normal in the short term, 58.9% said no, 26.4% said yes and 14.7% said they had no idea.