The wave of yellow sweeping across France in the past two months crashed in Beirut on Dec. 23, coalescing thousands of indignant Lebanese citizens protesting decades of state incompetence. But analysts do not predict a change will come.

“So far the demonstrations have been relatively limited,” Karim Bitar, director of research at the French Institute for International and Strategic Affairs, told al-Monitor. “Considering the degree of public anger at corruption, mismanagement and years of bad governance, one could have expected much wider participation. Especially if you compare to what is happening in France.”

Organized by several civil society groups on social media several days before, the demonstration saw significant attendance, which precipitated heavy military response. Journalist and protesters were beaten and intimidated by anti-riot forces on the ground as the security apparatus attempted to contain crowds dispersing throughout Beirut. Well over 20 armored cars, some carrying loaded machine guns, sped through the city in a display of excessive force.

“It’s like we’re living under martial law,” one protester said.