Without the cloud of suspicion and potential indictments against Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, there would be no doubt that the Likud and the right-wing coalition would win the election on April 9 in a landslide and form a coalition similar to the current one, perhaps bolstered by one of the new centrist parties. But the cloud is a determining factor, and the election campaign won’t focus on security or economic issues, but rather the expected indictments. 

Gayil Talshir from the Department of Political Science at Hebrew University says that it’s true that according to polls and analyses, the right-wing bloc seems guaranteed a clear majority, while the center-left bloc, including the popular former Chief of Staff Benny Gantz, pose no real threat to the coalition. Gantz merely hopes to form a bloc with the Arab parties to prevent the establishment of a right-wing coalition. Thus, according to Talshir, the question isn’t a battle between the blocs, but whether enough parties agree to join Netanyahu’s coalition while he faces prosecution. Under Israeli law, a prime minister, unlike other ministers, does not have to resign even if indicted until all potential appeals are completed. 

The crux of Netanyahu’s problem lies with his current coalition partner, former Likud member and current chairman of Kulanu Moshe Kahlon, whose party now numbers 10 Knesset members. Kahlon said explicitly Dec. 20 that Netanyahu won’t be able to serve as prime minister when indictments hang over his head.

The rest of the coalition parties declared that since the law does not require the prime minister to resign over an indictment, they would be willing to join him in a next coalition. Education Minister Naftali Bennett, who in the meantime left HaBayit HaYehudi and established the New Right party with Justice Minister Ayelet Shaked, said in a televised interview that he doesn’t agree with Kahlon. He said, “Whether you love him or not, he’s done a lot for the country. I hope it doesn’t happen. But if there’s change through elections, that’s something else entirely.”