For about 10 years, the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP), which controls Erbil and Dahuk provinces in Iraq, has enjoyed close working relations with the Turkish government on trade, energy and security. The main architect of this opening has been the KDP's Nechirvan Barzani. The KDP, unlike other Iraqi Kurdish groups, has also acted as a counterweight since the 1990s to the formidable Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) guerrilla movement — Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s archenemy — by allowing Turkey to establish a number of military bases to monitor PKK activities.

However, Barzani, prime minister of the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) since 2012, was not nominated by the KDP to form the next KRG Cabinet. This is causing Erdogan to worry about the fate of a 50-year secretive energy deal made with Barzani in 2014.

In short, the KDP has been a critical partner for Erdogan. He was in Venezuela early last month when the news about Barzani broke and phoned from Caracas to find out more about what was happening in Erbil. According to two sources briefed about the conversation, Erdogan was concerned. “It took several minutes for Nechirvan to convince Erdogan that he should not worry about the changes,” one source told Al-Monitor. Another source said Erdogan directly asked Barzani, “Are you happy with the changes?” While Barzani told Erdogan that the decision to nominate his cousin Masrour Barzani as prime minister has been based on consensus, foreign diplomats and sources close to the KDP say the switch was not easy and fairly acrimonious.

The changes involving the powerful Barzani family are not only a family affair but also a regional issue that Turkey and Iran are watching closely.