Soleimani knows how to keep down costs in Syria

“Assuming that the Trump administration and Israel are not inclined to understate Iran’s spending abroad, the $16 billion estimate [of Iran’s support to Syria since 2012] is equivalent to $2.28 billion per annum,” writes Mohammad Ali Shabani. “This would put the cost of Iran’s combined expenditures for operations across the region — whether directly or via proxies — at 0.5% of the GDP. The latter includes an estimated $6 billion in credit lines extended to the Syrian government.”

Shabani assesses Iran’s low-budget regional operations based on US, Israeli and Iranian estimates and data. “Available data suggest that sanctions have had a negative impact on Iran’s military spending,” Shabani explains. “For instance, Iranian academics Sajjad Dizaji and Mohammad Farzanegan point out that military spending dropped by almost one-third between 2006 and 2015 — “one of the highest percentage decreases in military spending globally.” But military expenditures increased by 30% after the lifting of nuclear-related sanctions in 2016, a development that President Donald Trump emphasized when declaring the US withdrawal from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action in May.

“Yet, while there has been a jump in military spending over the past two years, the contraction of such expenditures over the previous decade has meant that the increase has only brought spending back to 2009 levels,” Shabani continues. “Moreover, even after the surge, military expenditures only constitute 3% of the gross domestic product. Here, Dizaji and Farzanegan separate the respective impact of unilateral and multilateral sanctions, and posit that the present US penalties are likely to have a “statistically insignificant” effect on Iran’s military spending “in both the short and long run.”