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Is Erdogan’s brinkmanship forcing Washington to climb down?

Ankara is pleased with Trump’s decision to pull out of Syria, but it greets this decision with a mixture of caution and skepticism.

U.S. President Donald Trump, Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan and Canada's Prime Minister Justin Trudeau are seen at the start of the NATO summit in Brussels, Belgium July 11, 2018.   REUTERS/Reinhard Krause - RC1C67E741D0
US President Donald Trump and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan are seen at the start of the NATO summit in Brussels, Belgium, July 11, 2018. — Reuters/Reinhard Krause

Deeply frustrated by what it describes as Washington's broken promises, Turkey has decided to take matters into its own hands in Syria. The Turkish military is poised to start an operation east of the Euphrates River against US-supported Kurdish fighters of the People's Protection Units (YPG).

President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s announcement of the operation — and his subsequent remarks about it — show that Turkey is committed to carrying out this operation regardless of what Washington says.

The Turkish military’s Operation Euphrates Shield in 2017 and its Operation Olive Branch this year — both of which were launched over US objections — show that Erdogan has to be taken seriously.

Ankara’s new operation, which Erdogan says is only days ahead, is predicated on the assumption that Washington will ultimately remain passive, as it did during Turkey’s previous operations.

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