Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, with his abrasive manners and undiplomatic approach to international affairs, is not an easy leader for the West to deal with. Love him or not, however, the West is showing once again that it can’t afford to ignore him. Because of this, Erdogan has enhanced his international image over the past few months, going from being a potential pariah in Western eyes to being viewed as an interlocutor who is by turns a regional game-changer, a potential peacemaker and even a champion of international justice.
Many analysts argue that it is Turkey’s importance, rather than Erdogan as a leader, that is driving the current dynamics. They note that European leaders continue to criticize him over his record on democracy and human rights, even to his face when hosting him on official visits. These same European leaders are also trying, however, to ensure that such criticism does not escalate into fresh crises with Ankara at a time when they need Turkey’s cooperation on such vital issues as illegal immigration from the Middle East and the fight against Islamic terrorism.
Ironically, only two month ago Erdogan appeared to be a weak and ineffectual regional leader when he failed in his attempt to forestall an attack on Syria’s Idlib province by Russian-backed Syrian regime forces. The United Nations had warned that if launched, such an offensive could turn into the worst bloodbath yet in Syria.
Erdogan’s attempt to prevent the attack, during the summit he held in Tehran with Iranian President Hassan Rouhani and Russian President Vladimir Putin in early September, fell flat on its face in front of live cameras. Erdogan proposed a general cease-fire in Idlib to cover all parties, including radical Islamist groups targeted by Russia, but Putin’s outright rejection of the proposal, and Rouhani’s backing of Putin, left Erdogan looking like the least influential of the three leaders.
AL-MONITOR All-Access gives you unlimited access to all our journalism, the full Daily Briefing, exclusive interviews, premium newsletters, and live events — for less than $2/week.