Some 48 hours after it ran, the introductory paragraph of my Nov. 14 article on Al-Monitor requires revision. That same alert, anonymous Hamas fighter who had his suspicions aroused by the Israeli Defense Forces team operating deep within Gaza on Nov. 11 resulting in a deadly firefight set off a chain of regional reactions. For now, the results are not only the resignation of Defense Minister Avigdor Liberman, but probably also the downfall of Benjamin Netanyahu’s fourth government and early elections.

The prime minister has hit a dead end. This was not supposed to happen. Against his will, Netanyahu will probably have to schedule elections for some time between March and May 2019. Unlike the luxury he enjoyed in recent years of calling the shots in right-wing politics, he has no control over this ongoing event. It caught him unprepared, even as he concluded that there was no reason to move up the elections scheduled for November 2019 and he would do better to stick with his current government. However, Liberman’s departure set off a minefield. Liberman appears to have coordinated his move with two of Netanyahu’s key coalition partners: Finance Minister Moshe Kahlon, founder of the center-right Kulanu Party, and his old friend Aryeh Deri, minister of the interior and head of the ultra-Orthodox Shas Party. The fact that both of them immediately called for elections to be held as soon as possible indicated as much. Kahlon even vetoed a proposal to appoint Education Minister Naftali Bennett, leader of the rightist HaBayit HaYehudi, as Liberman’s successor. Netanyahu realized he had been ambushed. If he is unable to appoint Bennett, HaBayit HaYehudi will join his other coalition partners in demanding elections. Even now, Liberman’s departure along with his party’s lawmakers leaves Netanyahu with 61 Knesset seats, a one-seat, fragile majority at the mercy of any single disaffected legislator, such as Likud’s Oren Hazan. This could spell the end of a term or of an era. We will know for sure within a few months.

Most of Netanyahu’s partners are now pushing for the earliest possible elections. Two dates being mentioned are March 12 or 26 (elections in Israel are held on Tuesdays, by law), four months from now. Although the date is drawing near, as of now Israelis do not know just who the candidates will be. The political arena is still in the early stages of preparation.

Netanyahu, who will run as the head of Likud, is the only certainty. Will the opposition center-left Zionist Camp remain intact with Labor head Avi Gabbay as its leader? Will the parties of the center and left unite? Will former Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Benny Gantz form an independent party? With which party will former Defense Minister and Chief of Staff Moshe Ya'alon align himself? Will another former army chief, Lt. Gen. (res.) Gabi Ashkenazi run on one of the platforms? Will Knesset member Orly Levy-Abekasis, who quit Liberman’s party, run as the head of a small independent party or hook up with a larger one? Will Yesh Atid leader Yair Lapid eventually sign up a significant defense figure for his centrist party? Will the ultra-Orthodox Yahadut HaTorah party split into two rival camps? Will the Arab Joint List, comprised of three Arab-Israeli factions, stay together?