A breakthrough in the Cabinet formation process in Lebanon remains elusive despite recent indications that a power sharing formula might be imminent. While the major obstacle to forming the government is primarily linked to inter- and intra-sectarian rivalries, the impact of foreign powers remains a fixture of Lebanese politics. Al-Monitor has confirmed that the Donald Trump administration has privately informed Lebanese officials that giving Hezbollah the Health Ministry is a “red line,” but has also left the door open regarding what punitive measures the US government might take.

Hezbollah is expected to have three seats in the next Lebanese government, one of which might be allocated to Jamal al-Taqsh, who is a general surgeon at Al-Rasoul al-Aazam Hospital in Hezbollah’s stronghold in the Dahiyeh area of Beirut.

Hezbollah has been under pressure from its base to become proactive in governance and its secretary-general, Hassan Nasrallah, pledged in the last electoral campaign to make the issue of reform a top priority. The Shiite group's officials argue that the Health Ministry is an opportunity to offer their model of governance, which has not been the case with the ministries Hezbollah has held so far.

The view inside the Trump administration is that Iran is trying to expand its power in Lebanon in retaliation for the reimposed US sanctions and that Hezbollah will use the Health Ministry to bypass US restrictions on its funding activities. Hence, if US allies in Lebanon do not prevent Hezbollah from taking this ministry, the subtle message from Washington is that the United States might no longer make a distinction between the Lebanese government and Hezbollah as it has done in the past decade.