The rocket that hit a home in Beersheba on the night of Oct. 17 fell only seconds after the mother of the family had fled with her three children to a protected room in the basement. The rocket also landed on Israel’s security officials as a complete surprise. An additional rocket was fired northward that night; it fell into the ocean, opposite a large city in the Gush Dan metropolitan area. The authorities did not disclose the exact place.

The incident evokes memories of the summer of 2014, when Israeli intel kept telling the political echelon that Hamas isn’t interested in an escalation or another round of fighting. Now, too, the intelligence assessment is that Hamas “is not interested” — but the reality on the ground indicates otherwise.

“Anyone who fires a precise, heavy rocket at Beersheba and another one to the north is someone who wants to ignite the whole area,” an Israeli cabinet member told Al-Monitor on condition of anonymity. “We listen to intelligence reports and we know that these are well-based assessments. Still, what happened last night is very strange, and it will be Hamas who will be held responsible.”

By the afternoon, the Israel Defense Forces had cobbled together a theory that Hamas had no desire to fire those rockets. However, only Hamas and Islamic Jihad own rockets with those ranges. Therefore, the IDF placed the complete responsibility on Hamas’ Gaza head Yahya Sinwar and political bureau chief Ismail Haniyeh, and Israel’s air force delivered a round of air strikes at 20 targets in the Strip.