Anyone seeking to understand the latest flare-up between Gaza and Israel must keep in mind two self-evident facts. The first is that there is no way whatsoever that Hamas was not involved in the firing of two Grad rockets from Gaza into Israel this week. The second is that Hamas and Israel are not interested in going to war at this time and each is adopting a posture of “grab me before I go crazy and punch out the other guy’s lights.”

On the night of Oct. 16-17, two 122 mm Grad rockets were fired from Gaza — one toward a central Israeli city (Israeli authorities did not disclose the exact location), the other toward the southern town of Beersheba. The first landed in the sea, the second hit a house. By dint of a mother’s resourcefulness in rushing her three children into a shelter, no one was hurt.

Knowing that Israel would react with force to the attack, both Hamas and the Islamic Jihad denied responsibility for the rockets. “The resistance wings in the joint command center salute Egyptian efforts to achieve our people’s demands and reject all irresponsible attempts that seek to distort and destroy the Egyptian [truce] efforts, including the firing of rockets last night,” according to their joint statement. “Nonetheless, we underscore our readiness to act against any aggression.”

No organization operating in the Gaza Strip other than Hamas and the Islamic Jihad has such long-range Grad rockets in its arsenal. An Israeli defense source noted Hamas’ state of alert, given recent threats by Defense Minister Avigdor Liberman and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to retaliate against the ongoing Gaza border violence. The source told Al-Monitor that in such a situation, and under the watchful eyes of Hamas, no rogue group could have set up the rocket launcher, fire off two rockets and disappear. So why did Hamas launch the rockets and immediately apologize and disavow responsibility for them?