In the early hours of Oct. 16, members of Pakistan-based terrorist group Jaish ul-Adl kidnapped 14 Iranian security personnel in Iran’s southeastern Sistan and Baluchestan province. The incident happened in the village of Lulakdan, near the town of Mirjaveh on the Pakistani border. Although similar incidents have taken place in the past, the current regional context is noticeably different than before.
Iran, in addition to dealing with new economic and security challenges resulting from tensions with the United States, was rocked by a deadly terrorist attack on a military parade in the southwestern city of Ahvaz last month. Meanwhile, in Pakistan, the new government is expected to pursue a path different from the traditional Muslim League parties. In Saudi Arabia, the murder of Jamal Khashoggi has brought the kingdom under an unprecedented wave of criticism by its American and European allies. Yet the most significant question posed by the Oct. 16 kidnapping pertains to the Iran-Pakistan relationship.
Tensions rose between Tehran and Islamabad in April 2017, when Jaish ul-Adl militants killed 10 Iranian border guards in Sistan and Baluchestan province and then fled back across the border into Pakistan. A brief verbal clash between Pakistan and Iran ensued. Maj. Gen. Mohammad Bagheri, the chief of the general staff of the Iranian Armed Forces, called on the Pakistani government to confront militants who carry out cross-border attacks, warning that if Islamabad failed to do so, Tehran would hit militant “safe havens, wherever they are.”
Iran later targeted Pakistan’s Baluchestan region on at least two occasions, namely May 27, 2017, and July 9, 2017. Pakistan then announced that any military operation on Pakistani soil would be viewed as “an attack on its territorial integrity.” In June 2017, soon after the first attack, the Pakistani army shot down a drone it claimed Iran was using for “spy operations.” This chain of unfriendly actions was later followed by extensive high-level negotiations between the two countries until July this year, when the Iranian and Pakistani army reached an agreement to boost their intelligence and security cooperation. The Oct. 16 kidnapping is a test of whether this agreement is practical or if there will be renewed tensions.
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